i ran across the “4 week rule” system developed by Richard Donchian when i first read John J. Murphy’s book “Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets”. personally, i have a sweet spot for simple rules that produce surprising results and this system is as simple as it gets
the original system had two rules:
- enter long positions and cover short positions whenever price exceeds the high of the past 4 weeks
- enter short positions and cover long positions whenever price falls below the low of the past 4 weeks
though simple and does work, the system as it is defined above is in the market, be it long or short, at all times. the result of this is that during periods that the market is moving sideways, the system tends to get “whipsawed” pretty badly.
the system below is a modification of the “4 week rule” which i picked up from Ed Seykota’s site.
for the sake of this writing, the system is briefly described here in the following way:
- The system has two states – it can either be long or short. when it is long, take signals to the upside. when it is short, take signals to the down
- A long term price channel, the slow channel, is used to determine the overall trend – either up or down. If the price high goes above this channel, the system is long and stays long until price drops below the channel at which time the system is short
- A short term price channel, the fast channel, is used to generate trading signals – both enter and exit. If the system is long and price goes above the short term upper channel a long trade signal is issued. At the same time a stop is place at the short term lower channel (the stop trails as the lower channel moves up)
as mentioned, this “modified” approach was taken from Ed Seykota – definitely worth a visit to have a look at what rigorous system development looks like
below is the code in thinkScript for the long side (both entry and exit scripts)
Long_Entry
declare LONG_ENTRY;
input SLOW_LENGTH = 126;
input FAST_LENGTH = 30;
# define system as long or short
# N resistance - the highest high over the last N bars
# N support - the lowest low over the last N bars
def longTermResistance = Highest(high, SLOW_LENGTH);
def longTermSupport = Lowest(low, SLOW_LENGTH);
def shortTermResistance = Highest(high, FAST_LENGTH);
def shortTermSupport = Lowest(low, FAST_LENGTH);
# system changes from short to long when price moves above long term resistance
# system changes from long to short when price moves below long term support
rec state = compoundValue(1, if state[1] < 1 and high > longTermResistance[1] then 1
else if state[1] > -1 and low < longTermSupport[1] then -1
else state[1], 1);
def trigger = if state == 1 and high > shortTermResistance[1] then 1 else 0;
def orderprice = open;
addOrder(trigger, orderprice);
SetColor(color.green);
Long Exit
declare LONG_EXIT;
input SLOW_LENGTH=126;
input FAST_LENGTH = 30;
# define system as long or short
# N resistance - the highest high over the last N bars
# N support - the lowest low over the last N bars
def shortTermResistance = Highest(high, FAST_LENGTH);
def shortTermSupport = Lowest(low, FAST_LENGTH);
addorder(low < shortTermSupport[1]);
setcolor(color.gray);
in order to run the code with ToS, do the following:
- In ToS, create a new strategy – call it myLongEntry
- Copy/paste the Long_Entry code above and save
- Create a second strategy – call it myLongExit
- Copy/paste the Long_Exit code and save
- Add both these strategies to any chart
- Play around with the input values (fastlength, slowlength) and open the report to see results
the short side is left as an exercise for the reader 😉
feel free to leave me a message if you have comments or need help with any of this
“Till a voice, as bad as Conscience, rang interminable changes
onn 